The International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Tuesday released a report stating that the global air passenger traffic will continue to stay stunned and not return to the pre-COVID levels until 2024.
This prediction is a year later of what was previously thought. Citing the reasons for the “more pessimistic recovery” IATA stated depreciated containment of the virus in the US and developing nations as one of the reasons for the stunted growth.
“Although developed economies outside of the US have been largely successful in containing the spread of the virus, renewed outbreaks have occurred in these economies, and in China,” IATA report states.
It also adds that there are little to no signs of containment in the US and other key emerging global economies which together form 40% of the global air travel markets.
Another factor the report highlighted for the delayed revival of air traffic is ‘weaker consumer confidence.’
While people are eager to meet friends and family or travel for leisure, uncertainty continues to prevail over job security, financial matters, and risk of catching COVID-19, prompting degraded air traffic, the report acknowledges.
“Some 55% of respondents to IATA’s June passenger survey don’t plan to travel in 2020.” The IATA report has also includes reduced corporate travel as another trend for the drowning air-traffic.
Taking all the recent trends into consideration, IATA predicts there will be a 62% rise in passenger numbers in the comming year, but the world will have to wait until 023 to see the 2019 air traffic again.
Domestic travel will bounce back faster in comparison to international travel, given the current situation, and hence, as the report says, RPKs (Revenue per Kilometer) will recover more slowly.
“Scientific advances in fighting COVID-19 including development of a successful vaccine, could allow a faster recovery.,” the report suggests. “However, at present there appears to be more downside risk than upside to the baseline forecast.”
IATA’s Director General and CEO, Alexandre de Juniac stressed that international travel which accounts for the 2/3rd of global air traffic remains “virtually non-existent.”
Adding further, Juniac said summer which is the air travel industry’s busiest season has a little chance for an upswing in the international market unless governments “demand killing-quarantine.”
“We need to learn to manage the risks of living with COVID-19 with targeted and predictable measures that will safely re-build traveler confidence and shattered economies,” said de Juniac.