Smoke and Shadows: what we know about the Jordan plot
Amman, Jordan: A plot and intrigue in the very heart of the Jordanian royal family -- a spurned half-brother stripped of the title of crown prince allegedly involved in a conspiracy against the king.
The twists and turns of events in the Hashemite kingdom since news broke Saturday of a security crackdown have cracked open tensions in the monarchy and raised many questions about what is behind the palace turmoil.
Who is involved?
Deputy prime minister and foreign minister Aymane Safadi has accused Prince Hamzah bin Hussein, a half-brother of King Abdullah II, and others of planning to "undermine the security" of the country.
Hamzah, the former crown prince, is now confined to his palace, while 14 to 16 people have been arrested.
Among those under arrest are a former close aide to the royal family, Bassem Awadallah, chief of the royal court in 2007-08, and Sherif Hassan bin Zaid, a former special envoy to Saudi Arabia.
What were their aims?
Even though the Washington Post quoting US intelligence sources said there had been an attempted coup, analysts say that seems unlikely.
"It is impossible to prepare a coup d'etat without the support of the main army units and the security and intelligence services. And all these forces are behind the king," said Oraib Al-Rantawi, an analyst with the Al-Quds Centre for Policy Studies.
None of those alleged to be involved "have the profile or the capacity to lead a coup," he added.
Safadi said in a Sunday press conference the security services had monitored "contacts with foreign parties aiming to destabilize Jordan's security," including an alleged offer to spirit Hamzah's wife out of the country.
Academic Barah Mikail, at the Saint Louis University in Madrid, said the word "destabilization" was used to imply that "the people that are behind this attempt were looking" to capitalize on popular anger "to change the situation and so by extension to move the king of Jordan and get him replaced by someone else".
Long-simmering tensions have grown in the cash-strapped country amid the global pandemic, which has added to the already serious unemployment situation, triggered the closure of schools, and led to a nightly curfew as well as at weekends.
Two weeks ago small protests broke out against the economic crisis.
What role did Hamzah play?
Hamzah was appointed crown prince in 1999 in line with his father's wishes, but Abdullah stripped him of the title in 2004 and named his eldest son in Hamzah's place.
According to a Jordanian analyst who asked not to be named, for Hamzah "there is certainly resentment on his part because he has never digested losing his title of crown prince".
Now 41, the prince has "for some time had been singing from his own songsheet and had developed positions closer to the opposition than the official line," said Rantawi.
"This was posing a problem because you cannot be a member of the royal family and at the same time a symbol for the opposition."
Hamzah has been highly critical of the ruling authorities and on Saturday accused them of corruption, incompetence, and misrule.
"There are clear indications that Prince Hamzah was very popular among the youth and among the tribes which he used to visit regularly," said another political analyst, Labib Kamhawi.
"This was seen by the court as a bid to capture the regime's base and endanger the regime's stability."
Is the king in danger?
No one thinks so.
"The king is not in any danger," said Rantawi.
"At the start of all this there were some fears among the people as no one knew what was going on, but once the affair was made public the anxiety disappeared."
Kamhawi agreed: " I don't think the king is in any danger, as the army, police, and the intelligence services are totally under the control of the king."
Who could be behind this abroad?
Safadi accused Awadallah of unnamed and unspecified "foreign contacts" seeking to put in place "a wicked plot".
But this is impossible to verify and, with the Jordanian authorities imposing a news blackout on reporting on the investigation, it will be hard to get fresh details.
Officially regional neighbors were quick to swing behind King Abdullah and offer their support.
On Tuesday, Safadi met with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, carrying a message from Saudi's King Salman.
"If the Saudis have acted so fast, it is because two of the suspects under arrest have Saudi nationality and are close to the ruling family," said Kamhawi.
The US administration of President Joe Biden has expressed its total support for the king, while Israel called it an "internal affair".